Footwear invoicing recovers in March 2026 but remains negative

News summary

The National Institute of Statistics (INE) has published the data of the business turnover index (ICN) for the leather and footwear industry for March 2026. Turnover fell by 2.3% compared to the same month in 2025, marking nine consecutive months in negative territory. However, the decline is significantly smaller than that recorded in February (11.8% year-on-year) and much milder than the drops at the end of 2025. The general ICN for Spanish industry, on the contrary, grew by 8.1% in the seasonally adjusted series. This indicates that although the footwear sector has not yet managed to exit negative territory, the pace of deterioration is clearly slowing.

These figures reflect a trend of stabilization after a particularly tough period for the industry. Demand directed at the industrial branches of footwear shows signs of gradual recovery, probably driven by the normalization of consumption after the inflation of recent years. But the context remains fragile: the recovery is not homogeneous and the scope for improvement is still wide.

What does it mean for your footwear store?

For a retailer, the news has several readings. First, the less pronounced decline suggests that the worst moment of the demand crisis may have passed. If your store has suffered sales drops, this data may be an indication that the market is starting to bottom out. But caution: the recovery is incipient and not widespread. This means you must adjust your purchasing and stock strategies carefully.

• Inventory management: Avoid accumulating large volumes of product until demand is confirmed to be rising. Opt for shorter and more frequent orders to your suppliers, prioritizing references with proven turnover.

• Margin analysis: With turnover still negative, pressure on prices may continue. Review your margins and look for efficiencies in logistics or negotiation with wholesalers to maintain profitability without raising prices to the end customer.

• Supplier diversification: The volatility of the sector makes it advisable not to depend on a single wholesaler. Having alternatives will allow you to react to trend changes or stock shortages.

• Focus on value: Consumers remain price-sensitive. Highlight in your communication the quality-price ratio, durability, and after-sales service as purchasing arguments.

For retail, the key lies in flexibility. Macro data can help you anticipate, but the final decision must be based on your local reality and the actual demand of your clientele.

Outlook for wholesalers

For the footwear wholesaler, the reduction in the ICN decline is a first ray of hope after months of contraction. If you are a distributor or wholesale manufacturer, this indicator suggests that retailers are beginning to replenish inventories with more confidence, albeit still cautiously. It is likely that bulk orders will still be lower than in 2024, but the pace of decline is moderating.

• Production capacity adjustment: It is not advisable to increase production aggressively until you see two or three consecutive months of improvement. Maintain flexible capacity that allows you to scale quickly if demand rebounds.

• Pricing policy: Although inflationary pressure has eased, raw material and logistics costs remain high. Review your rates to offer competitive conditions without eroding your margin. Volume discounts or early payment discounts can be an incentive for retailers.

• Strengthening business relationships: In times of uncertainty, trust between wholesaler and retailer is key. Offer flexible payment terms, partial returns, or loyalty programs to ensure order recurrence.

The wholesaler who knows how to read this data as a sign of stabilization, and acts prudently but also with foresight, will be better positioned when the turnover curve crosses into positive territory.

Context of the Spanish market

The footwear sector in Spain has experienced turbulent years: first the pandemic, then runaway inflation and rising energy costs, and more recently competition from Asian imports and the contraction of consumption due to rising interest rates. The INE data confirms that the industry has not yet recovered pre-pandemic levels, but the trend for March 2026 is encouraging. The general ICN for Spanish industry grows strongly (+8.1%), indicating that other sectors are driving the economy, but footwear is lagging behind. This may be due to structural factors such as the seasonality of consumption or the shift in habits towards sports and casual footwear, which many national factories have not fully capitalized on.

For the Spanish wholesaler, the key lies in specialization. While Asian giants dominate low cost, Spanish footwear competes in quality, design, and proximity to the customer. The recovery in turnover, although slow, must be supported by these differentiating values. Stores that bet on national and quality products can better resist the pressure of low prices.

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