Luxury anticipates its recovery with 0.6% growth through June

Luxury leaves the slump behind and returns to positive territory

The global luxury sector closed the first half of the year with growth of 0.6%, according to the report prepared by Deloitte. The figure, modest in absolute terms, takes on another dimension when compared with the 12.4% collapse recorded in the same period of the previous year. We are talking, therefore, about a change in trend rather than an explosion in demand: the market has stopped falling and is beginning to stabilise.

The study also notes that mergers and acquisitions activity has moderated during the period analysed, after the momentum the market experienced in 2025. In other words, the major luxury corporations have moved from actively buying to consolidating what they have acquired, prioritising integration and profitability over expansion via M&A. This behaviour usually anticipates a phase of financial discipline that ends up spreading across the entire value chain, including suppliers and distributors.

What this figure means for footwear

Footwear occupies a central place in the luxury universe. Italian, French and Spanish shoemaking firms are part of the groups that best withstand consumer crises, and their performance is usually a leading indicator for the rest of the sector. When luxury grows again, even slightly, the knock-on effect on premium footwear occurs on three fronts:

• Product demand: high-net-worth consumers resume buying high-end shoes, especially in markets such as Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and North America.
• Price and margin: brands regain the ability to set prices without sacrificing volume, which eases pressure on margins across the entire chain.
• Brand investment: after a year of cutbacks, luxury firms are investing again in marketing, retail and customer experience, which energises the market as a whole.

B2B reading: what it means for the store and for the wholesaler

For a footwear store, the Deloitte figure does not mean it will sell more luxury shoes tomorrow. It means something more subtle but relevant: the downtrend appears to have bottomed out. If luxury grows, mid-to-high-end footwear tends to stabilise, and stores that have weathered the storm with a balanced offering of basics and value-added product will be better positioned to capture the recovery.

For the wholesaler, the implication is twofold. On the one hand, the moderation in mergers and acquisitions indicates that the big groups are not buying inventory or brands aggressively, which leaves room for independent operators and distributors with their own catalogue. On the other, the return to growth in luxury usually comes with greater demands from buyers regarding quality, traceability and service. The wholesaler that cannot guarantee lead times, full size runs and agile replenishment will be left out of the conversation.

Luxury does not pull the market through volume, but through price and perception. When it regains ground, it drags the rest of the sector upwards, but only those with the product and structure to take advantage of it.

Context of the Spanish market

Spain is a relevant market in the high-end footwear segment, both in terms of domestic production and consumption. Spanish leather shoe firms have managed to maintain a quality positioning that fits well with the luxury recovery, especially in exports to Europe and the United States. At the same time, the domestic market remains weighed down by cautious consumption, with a customer who compares price and values durability over novelty.

This dual scenario — rising exports, contained domestic consumption — forces the Spanish wholesaler to diversify. It is not enough to sell to the local market or to depend on a single channel. The luxury recovery opens doors in the premium channel, but it demands investment in product presentation, a carefully curated catalogue and the ability to serve small orders with high frequency.

What to watch in the coming months

The Deloitte report points to a slow but real recovery. There are three indicators worth following: the evolution of sales in Asian markets, the behaviour of M&A activity in the second half and the response of European consumers to the new autumn-winter collections. If the 0.6% growth consolidates, high-end footwear will have a more favourable autumn than last year's.

For the wholesaler, the recommendation is clear: prepare catalogue and stock for demand that will not be explosive, but will be more selective. Those with quality product, reliable lead times and the ability to adapt to smaller, more frequent orders will be in a position to capture the recovery before the competition.

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